Jimmy Carter và bài học về Cộng Sản

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Tổng thống Jimmy Carter
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Khi nhắc đến việc Hoa Kỳ bãi bỏ cấm vận và tái lập bang giao với Việt Nam, người ta thường nghĩ đến những tên tuổi như Bill Clinton và John McCain, nhưng thật ra Tổng thống Jimmy Carter mới là người có công lót những viên gạch đầu tiên trên con đường gập ghềnh đầy những bãi mìn còn sót lại từ cuộc chiến.

Bối Cảnh

Tháng Hai năm 1973, sau khi Hoa Kỳ và Bắc Việt ép Tổng thống Thiệu ký kết Hiệp Định Paris, Nixon gởi một bức mật thư cho Thủ tướng Phạm Văn Đồng, trong đó Nixon hứa “Hoa Kỳ sẽ đóng góp cho việc tái thiết Bắc Việt, không tuỳ thuộc vào cân nhắc chính trị nào cả,” nguyên văn:

The U.S. government will contribute to the reconstruction of North Vietnam without any political considerations whatsoever.”

Ông còn nói thêm là “dựa trên nghiên cứu sơ khởi của chính phủ, đóng góp của Hoa Kỳ vào các chương trình tái thiết hậu chiến như đã nói trên tương đương khoảng $3.25 tỉ đô la, trong dạng viện trợ không cần hoàn trả.”

U.S. preliminary studies show that programs appropriate for a U.S. contribution to the aforementioned postwar reconstruction will amount to about $3.25 billion in nonrefundable aid.”

Kissinger, Nixon và Ford, tháng 10/1973. AP

Tuy không nói ra, nhưng đằng sau lời hứa ấy là hai điều kiện. Thứ nhất, mọi chi tiêu của Hoa Kỳ cần được thông qua bởi Quốc Hội. Thứ nhì, Bắc Việt phải tuân thủ các điều khoản trong bản hoà ước vừa mới ký chưa kịp ráo mực.

Những gì xảy ra sau đó chúng ta đều đã biết. Mỹ rút quân, trao đổi tù binh, dọn đường cho Nixon ra tái tranh cử; Bắc Việt vi phạm Hiệp Định Paris một cách thô bạo, dốc toàn lực vào việc tấn công VNCH. Điều đáng nói là khi ấy Hà Nội chắc mẩm sau khi nuốt gọn miền Nam họ sẽ nhận được $3.25 tỉ đô la Mỹ.

Tháng 10, 1973, Phó tổng thống Spiro Agnew từ chức sau khi bị tố tội tham nhũng và gian lận thuế. Chiếu theo Tu Chính Án 25, Hạ Viện bầu Dân biểu Gerald Ford — khi ấy là lãnh đạo cánh Cộng Hoà, lên thay thế. Sang tháng 8 năm sau, đến phiên Nixon phải từ chức vì vụ Watergate. Gerald Ford từ một nhà lập pháp tại Hạ Viện bỗng ngồi vào ghế tổng thống trong vòng chưa đầy một năm.

Lúc bấy giờ nước Mỹ trải qua một cơn khủng hoảng chính trị nghiêm trọng nhất từ sau Nội Chiến. Phong trào phản chiến đã lắng xuống kể từ ngày ký Hiệp Định Paris và lệnh quân dịch được bãi bỏ. Dân Mỹ ngơi quan tâm đến cuộc chiến nên Quốc Hội cũng không còn mặn mòi với việc đổ thêm tiền vào Việt Nam. Sang tháng Tư 75, với số phiếu áp đảo Lưỡng Viện bác bỏ yêu cầu của Ford chi thêm $700 triệu cho VNCH. Cuối tháng Tư Sài Gòn thất thủ.

TT Ford, Henry Kissinger (phải), tướng Frederick Weyand, và đại sứ Graham Martin. 25/3/1975

Cần nói thêm, trong thời Chiến Tranh Lạnh Hoa Kỳ cùng các thành viên NATO đã thiết lập CHINCOM, một quy ước chế tài và cấm vận đối với các nước cộng sản như Nga và Trung Quốc cùng đám đàn em, trong đó có Bắc Việt. Sau tháng Tư 1975, ông Ford lập tức ra lệnh nới rộng lệnh cấm vận ấy lên toàn cõi Việt Nam từ Nam chí Bắc.

Không chỉ từ chối thiết lập bang giao, Hoa Kỳ còn dùng lá phiếu của mình trong Hội đồng Bảo an để ngăn không cho Việt Nam gia nhập Liên Hiệp Quốc. Tất cả tài sản của Việt Nam ở Mỹ bị đóng băng. Mọi sự giao thương, giao thông, thư từ, điện thoại v.v. đều bị cấm. Các ngân hàng quốc tế như World Bank, Asian Development Bank, International Monetary Fund do Mỹ đứng đầu đều không cho Việt Nam vay tiền. Kinh tế Việt Nam trước đã tệ vì rập theo mô hình Marxist-Leninist, nay càng kiệt quệ bởi thiếu vốn đầu tư; đàn anh Soviet chỉ muốn cho vay cắt cổ, trong khi bạn vàng Trung Cộng lại quay sang làm ăn với Mỹ.

Hồi Một

Năm 1976 Jimmy Carter vận động tranh cử với thông điệp hàn gắn vết thương chiến tranh và hồi hương hài cốt lính Mỹ mất tích ở Việt Nam (MIA). Tuy ông chỉ thắng sít sao với 50.1% phiếu phổ thông, nhưng bấy nhiêu cũng đủ khiến cho các đồng chí Ba Đình phấn khích.

Một trong những việc đầu tiên tân TT Carter cho làm là thành lập một uỷ ban gồm năm người có nhiệm vụ nghiên cứu kế hoạch tái lập bang giao với Việt Nam. Đứng đầu là Leonard Woodcock, chủ tịch liên đoàn công nhân United Auto Workers, người từng chỉ trích mãnh liệt các chính sách của Mỹ đối với Việt Nam trước kia. Thêm vào đó là Dân biểu “Sonny” Montgomery, tuy thuộc đảng Dân Chủ nhưng bảo thủ và phản chiến hạng nặng.

Leonard Woodcock đến phi trường Gia Lâm, Hà Nội. 16/3/1977. AP

Tháng Ba năm 1977 phái đoàn bay sang Việt Nam. Vừa đáp xuống Hà Nội, chưa kịp tỉnh cơn jetlag họ đã được Ngoại trưởng Nguyễn Duy Trinh vời đến một cuộc họp không xếp lịch trước. Tại buổi họp, ngài ngoại trưởng tuyên bố thẳng thừng với phái đoàn rằng Hoa Kỳ thiếu Việt Nam $3.25 tỉ đô la; không những đó là một món nợ đạo đức mà còn là một nghĩa vụ pháp lý. Woodcock phản biện sẽ không một người dân Mỹ nào đồng ý với chuyện trả tiền cho Việt Nam để “mua lại” hài cốt. Hai bên cứ thế mà giằng co suốt ba ngày họp. Cuối cùng Hà Nội cũng trao cho Woodcock 12 bộ xương (được cho là của lính Mỹ), coi như để tỏ thiện chí. Lòi ra một trong 12 bộ xương ấy là của một người đàn ông Việt Nam.

Tuy cuộc gặp thứ nhất chẳng đi tới đâu, phía Việt Nam vẫn kiên trì theo đuổi con mồi béo bở. Vài tuần sau Phạm Văn Đồng thư cho Woodcock, đề nghị một buổi họp ở Paris vào tháng Năm, 1977. Tổng thống Carter lập tức nhận lời. Để dọn đường cho phe ta, tờ Nhân Dân cho đăng bức mật thư của Nixon lên báo với hy vọng nó sẽ tạo áp lực lên phái đoàn Mỹ.

Lần này ông Carter giao nhiệm vụ đàm phán cho Richard Holbrook, 36 tuổi, nổi tiếng là một tay thương thuyết cừ khôi, từng làm việc tại miền Nam Việt Nam vào những năm 1963-66. Đại diện cho Việt Nam là thứ trưởng Bộ Ngoại giao, Phan Hiền. Holbrook cho hay Tổng thống Carter sẵn sàng tái lập bang giao, dỡ bỏ lệnh cấm vận và sẽ không bỏ phiếu chống Việt Nam vào LHQ nữa.Về phía mình, Phan Hiền nằng nặc đòi Mỹ phải trả $3 tỉ đô la trước.

Richard Holbrooke, đồng bằng Cửu Long, 1963.

Hai bên giằng co qua lại, chưa ngã ngũ thì Việt Nam bỗng chấm dứt buổi họp và triệu tập một cuộc họp báo. Trước sự ngỡ ngàng của công chúng, Phan Hiền mang bức mật thư của ông Nixon ra đọc và tuyên bố mọi thương thảo từ rày về sau sẽ tuỳ thuộc vào việc Mỹ giữ lời hứa bồi thường chiến tranh của ông Nixon.

Giới lãnh đạo Việt Nam đã tính lầm nước cờ; họ tưởng thành phần phản chiến ở Mỹ vẫn còn mạnh và có thể tạo áp lực lên chính quyền. Nào ngờ Quốc Hội Mỹ lập tức phản ứng với hai đạo luật. Đạo luật thứ nhất nghiêm cấm chính phủ Carter “thương lượng việc bồi thường, viện trợ hay chuyển tiền cho Việt Nam dưới mọi hình thức.” Đạo luật thứ nhì bác bỏ lời hứa trong bức mật thư của ông Nixon, cho rằng nó không có giá trị pháp lý nào cả.

Chưa chịu bỏ cuộc, Holbrook đề nghị hai bên lập văn phòng liên lạc tại Hà Nội và Hoa Thịnh Đốn để tiếp tục thương thuyết, song Việt Nam từ chối. Phan Hiền thì đề nghị ký kết một thoả thuận viện trợ ngầm mà không cho Quốc Hội biết. Tất nhiên Holbrook không dại gì đồng ý. Nỗ lực tái lập bang giao với Việt Nam của ông Carter vào năm 1977 coi như bất thành.

Hồi Hai

TT Jimmy Carter và cố vấn Zbigniew Brzezinski (thứ nhì từ phải)

Sang năm 1978 kinh tế Việt Nam ngày càng tuột dốc. Trong khi đó thì Mỹ đã chuyển hướng sang Trung Quốc sau khi Zbigniew Brzezinski lên thay thế ngoại trưởng Cyrus Vance. Thấy không ổn, Hà Nội bắn tiếng cho TT Jimmy Carter và nói họ sẵn sàng đối thoại phi điều kiện. Mỹ cho hay hai bên có thể gặp riêng vào tháng Chín, nhân dịp phái đoàn Việt Nam sang New York dự một buổi họp của Liên Hiệp Quốc.

Một lần nữa Holbrook được giao trọng trách thương thuyết. Đại diện cho phía Việt Nam là Nguyễn Cơ Thạch, một gương mặt trẻ sáng giá, ăn nói lưu loát, được giới ngoại giao nước ngoài rất mực khen ngợi. Song việc đầu tiên Thạch hỏi Holbrook là Hoa Kỳ chấp nhận bồi thường cho Việt Nam bao nhiêu tiền. Holbrook chưng hửng, đáp lại rằng lý do Mỹ đồng ý có cuộc gặp này vì tưởng chuyện tiền bạc đã dẹp qua một bên.

Holbrook định xách cặp ra về thì Thạch đổi giọng, nói Việt Nam sẵn sàng ký một thoả thuận ngay lúc đó mà không nêu vấn đề tiền nong gì cả. Holbrook nói ông ta không có thẩm quyền ký kết, nhưng sẽ tham khảo với Bộ Ngoại Giao rồi báo cho Thạch hay. Thạch ở lại New York chờ câu trả lời từ Holbrook.

Nguyễn Cơ Thạch

Nhưng lần này tới phiên Mỹ cho Việt Nam leo cây. Đợi cả tháng không thấy Holbrook trả lời, Nguyễn Cơ Thạch cuối cùng phải bay về Hà Nội với hai bàn tay trắng.

Hạ Hồi

Cuối năm 1978 Lê Duẩn ký một hiệp ước với Soviet, không lâu sau đó Việt Nam đem quân sang đánh Khmer Rouge. Hành động xâm lược này đã tạo nên một hình ảnh xấu cho Việt Nam khiến việc thiết lập bang giao Mỹ-Việt là điều không tưởng.

Năm 1979, Trung Quốc tấn công; chiến tranh biên giới bùng nổ. Cuộc đàn áp người Việt gốc Hoa lên cao độ. Làn sóng vượt biển ngày càng gia tăng. Hình ảnh thuyền nhân và những câu chuyện thương tâm của “Boat People” lại càng làm cho thế giới tự do không muốn giao tiếp với Việt Nam.

Phải đợi đến cuối thập niên 1980, khi các nhà lãnh đạo thuộc thế hệ kách mệnh chết bớt và chính sách “đổi mới” được khởi động Việt Nam mới được Hoa Kỳ và các nước trong khối tự do từ từ nới lỏng các quy định chế tài.

John Kerry, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter – 25/3/2004.

Đầu thập niên 1990 một số thượng nghị sĩ là cựu chiến binh từng tham chiến ở Việt Nam như John Kerry, Bob Kerrey, Chuck Robb bắt đầu lên tiếng ủng hộ việc hoà giải và tái lập bang giao với Việt Nam. Thượng nghị sĩ John McCain, người từng ở tù cộng sản nhiều năm, lúc đầu phản đối chuyện này rất mực, nhưng dần dà ông cũng đổi thái độ và trở thành một tiếng nói có uy tín, đắc lực giúp Tổng thống trốn quân dịch Bill Clinton bãi bỏ lệnh cấm vận năm 1994 và tái lập bang giao năm 1995.

Nhìn lại con đường đã qua, không biết Việt Nam sẽ phát triển đến mức nào nếu những người Cộng Sản thời bấy giờ không quá tự tin và kiêu ngạo để bỏ lỡ những cơ hội bằng vàng Tổng thống Jimmy Carter dâng cho họ.

Ian Bui

Tài liệu tham khảo:

Fall of Saigon Meetings, March-April 1975

Foreign policy of the Gerald Ford administration

The Rocky Road To Reconciliation

Richard Holbrooke, the Last Great Freewheeling Diplomat

When Richard Holbrooke met Nguyen Cơ Thach in New York in September 1977

Nguồn : https://vietopian.wordpress.com/2023/09/30/jimmy-carter-va-bai-hoc-ve-cong-san/

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